Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guerrero Jr. homered to right (367 feet), Biggio scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Robert Jr. homered to left center (450 feet), Benintendi scored and Anderson scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Merrifield doubled to left, Belt scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Chapman to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +6 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +5 Elo | CHW 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 20–2021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–0 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.