Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Springer scored, Bichette thrown out at home.7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 9Turner homered to left (378 feet).7–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 8Chapman homered to right (365 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Chapman scored on pickoff error by pitcher Winckowski.6–3
- 7Chapman scored on pickoff error by pitcher Winckowski.6–3
- 6Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to right, Arroyo scored, Refsnyder to third.6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 5Yoshida singled to center, Devers scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Devers singled to center, Turner scored, Devers to second.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 5Turner doubled to center, Refsnyder scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Bichette homered to left center (392 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Devers homered to left center (418 feet), Turner scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -116
- BOS +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +11 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +36 Elo | TOR 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 23–167th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 5–0 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.