Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-3
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Verdugo scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Yoshida homered to right center (444 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Duran homered to center (417 feet), Wong scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Turner homered to left center (379 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Fair odds
- TOR -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +41 Elo | TOR 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 23–156th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–0 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.