Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting5-5
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Verdugo homered to right center (415 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Verdugo grounded out to third, Turner scored on throwing error by first baseman Guerrero Jr..4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Turner singled to right, Duran scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Belt homered to center (402 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Bichette singled to right, Kiermaier scored and Springer scored, Bichette out stretching at second.2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Devers reached on infield single to first, Duran scored, Verdugo to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Belt homered to right (378 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Devers singled to right, Duran scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -115
- BOS +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 14th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 23–178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 6–0 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.