Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Merrifield homered to left (368 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Chapman scored.12–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play12–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 39–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–2
- 9Belt scored on Cisnero wild pitch, Chapman to second on wild pitch by Cisnero, Guerrero Jr. to third on wild pitch by Cisnero.9–2
- 9Belt scored on Cisnero wild pitch, Chapman to second on wild pitch by Cisnero, Guerrero Jr. to third on wild pitch by Cisnero.9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 9Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Bichette scored, Belt to second.8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Vierling singled to center, McKinstry scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 37–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 4Springer homered to left (417 feet), Jansen scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Kiermaier grounded out to second, Merrifield scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Jansen doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Chapman scored, Merrifield to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Merrifield singled to center, Belt scored, Chapman to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Torkelson singled to center, Ibañez scored, Rogers to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Springer doubled to right, Kiermaier scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- TOR +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −17 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +13 Elo | TOR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3025–22 | Road vs home | 19–2326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.