Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. thrown out at second.5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Merrifield homered to left center (395 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Anderson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Zavala scored, Benintendi out at second.3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Springer scored, Bichette to second.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Chapman homered to left (355 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Jiménez homered to right (351 feet), Anderson scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Anderson singled to left, Benintendi scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Merrifield homered to left center (397 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -101
- CHW +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +29 Elo | TOR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 12th of 3024–22 | Road vs home | 20–2224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 5–0 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.