Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jordan DiazBatting2-3
- Hogan HarrisPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Jake MarisnickBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Haase singled to left, Báez scored, Schoop to second.0–9
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 20–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 6Marisnick homered to left center (410 feet).0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 5Haase grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Báez scored, Schoop out at second.0–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 4Vierling singled to right, Marisnick scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Marisnick doubled to center, Short scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Schoop hit sacrifice fly to right, Ibañez scored, Báez to second, Carpenter to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Carpenter singled to left, Vierling scored, Ibañez to second, Ibañez safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Kemp.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Báez singled to center, Torkelson scored and Ibañez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Fair odds
- DET -125
- OAK +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +60 Elo | DET 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–31 | Road vs home | 18–2326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.