Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting0-3
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-2
- Matt ManningPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 1Carpenter tripled to center, Torkelson scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Torkelson doubled to left, Greene scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Fair odds
- TOR -102
- DET +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.7 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −15 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 8th of 3026–22 | Road vs home | 19–2426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.