Arizona Diamondbacks at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrifield scored on error, Jansen safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Marte, Jansen safe at second on error, Varsho safe at third on error.2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Merrifield singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Chapman scored, Merrifield to second.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Chapman doubled to left, Biggio scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Belt grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kiermaier scored, Springer out at second.2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Moreno homered to right center (380 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Marte scored on Berríos wild pitch.1–2
- 4Marte scored on Berríos wild pitch.1–2
- 2Kiermaier sacrificed into double play, center to second, Chapman scored, Merrifield thrown out at third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (426 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- ARI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +23 Elo | TOR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 23–188th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.