Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jiman ChoiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan BoruckiPitching1.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Triolo singled to right, Joe scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Suwinski hit sacrifice fly to left, Marcano scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Thomas homered to right center (378 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Choi homered to center (427 feet), Santana scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Perdomo scored on throwing error by catcher Hedges, Walker stole third.0–1
- 1Perdomo scored on throwing error by catcher Hedges, Walker stole third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Fair odds
- ARI -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −23 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski (no track record yet) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +38 Elo | ARI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–28 | Road vs home | 26–2317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–4 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.