Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Freeman singled to left, Betts scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Muncy homered to center (414 feet), Freeman scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Gonzales doubled to left, Joe scored and Suwinski scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Freeman homered to right (415 feet), Betts scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Fair odds
- LAD -121
- PIT +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.0 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −6 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +54 Elo | LAD 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 26–164th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.