Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Peralta homered to right (406 feet).4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 5Martinez homered to left center (389 feet), Smith scored and Muncy scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Rojas singled to center, Martinez scored, Peralta to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Heyward hit sacrifice fly to right, Muncy scored, Martinez to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Suwinski homered to right center (389 feet), Davis scored and Santana scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Reynolds homered to right center (411 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Fair odds
- LAD -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −5 | PIT: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +69 Elo | LAD 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 25–164th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.