Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Triolo doubled to right, Marcano scored.11–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–7
- 8Marcano tripled to left, Joe scored and Davis scored.11–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 8Suwinski homered to center (420 feet), Palacios scored.11–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 8Palacios singled to center, Delay scored.11–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 111–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–2
- 7Tapia homered to right (368 feet).11–2
- 7Pitch 11 : Ball In Play11–2
- 7Pitch 10 : Ball 210–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 110–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 6Suwinski singled to right, Bae scored and Triolo scored, McCutchen to third.10–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking10–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking10–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 310–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 210–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 6Caratini singled to center, Winker scored.10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
- 6Winker doubled to center, Perkins scored, Yelich scored and Tapia scored.9–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +26 Elo | PIT 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 13th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–1 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.