Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Owen MillerBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Santana homered to right (431 feet), McCutchen scored.7–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–8
- 9McCutchen doubled to center, Bae scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 8Suwinski singled to right, Santana scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 7McCutchen singled to left, Marcano scored, Palacios to second.7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Turang doubled to right, Contreras scored and Miller scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Miller doubled to left, Yelich scored, Contreras to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Gonzales doubled to right, Suwinski scored and Davis scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4McCutchen homered to left (364 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Tellez singled to center, Yelich scored, Contreras to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -106
- MIL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −14 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +5 Elo | PIT 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 21–1917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–0 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.