Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peralta hit sacrifice fly to left, Freeman scored.9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 8Freeman doubled to left, Betts scored.8–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 8Betts doubled to center, Rojas scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Heyward singled to left, Martinez scored, Peralta thrown out at third.6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 6Fermin singled to left, Garcia scored, Pratto to second.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 5Martinez hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Pratto doubled to right, Garcia scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Betts singled to center, Heyward scored, Outman to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Heyward doubled to center, Peralta scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Witt Jr. grounded out to first, Waters scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Betts homered to left (402 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Fair odds
- LAD -111
- KC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +3 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +51 Elo | LAD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 11–3029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.