Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Austin CoxPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fermin singled to left, Waters scored, S. Taylor to third.14–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 114–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul14–0
- 7Ramírez doubled to right, Bo Naylor scored.14–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 113–0
- 6Brennan grounded out to first, Bell scored.13–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking12–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 212–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 6Bell doubled to left, J. Naylor scored and Ramírez scored.12–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 6J. Naylor doubled to right, Rosario scored, Ramírez to third.10–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 39–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 29–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–0
- 6Rosario tripled to right, Kwan scored.9–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 29–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 6Bo Naylor homered to center (417 feet), Straw scored.8–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Bell homered to right center (464 feet), Ramírez scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Ramírez homered to left (387 feet), Bo Naylor scored, Kwan scored and Rosario scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -105
- KC +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Austin Cox (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 10–2929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.