Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting1-3
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Brennan doubled to right, Giménez scored and Arias scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 8Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Blanco scored on throwing error by pitcher Stephan.0–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Fair odds
- CLE -103
- KC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −4 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 10–2829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.