Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 10Fermin doubled to left, Isbel scored and Lopez scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 10Ramírez stole home.3–2
- 10Ramírez stole home.3–2
- 8Pratto singled to center, Waters scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 8Olivares hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Bell reached on infield single to third, J. Naylor scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Fair odds
- CLE -107
- KC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −4 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +41 Elo | CLE 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 10–3029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–0 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.