Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- David PeraltaBatting3-4
- Tony GonsolinPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Garcia singled to right, Melendez scored, Lopez to second.1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Fermin scored, Waters out at second, Melendez to third.1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 5Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Isbel scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Lopez singled to center, Waters scored, Isbel to second.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Waters doubled to left, Melendez scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Witt Jr. singled to right, Lopez scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Lopez doubled to right, Isbel scored and Waters scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Martinez scored, Peralta to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Garcia singled to center, Waters scored, Garcia to second, Isbel to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Fair odds
- LAD -113
- KC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.2 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −1 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +64 Elo | LAD 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 12–3129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–1 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.