Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Outman reached on infield single to first, Muncy scored, Peralta to second.4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Blanco scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 2Freeman singled to center, Hernández scored.3–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 2Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Outman scored, Hernández to third.2–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Hernández doubled to left, Deluca scored, Outman to third.1–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Waters singled to center, Pratto scored and Duffy scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1S. Taylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Perez scored, Duffy to second, Pratto to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Olivares hit sacrifice fly to second, Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Perez reached on infield single to second, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Fair odds
- LAD -112
- KC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.3 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +13 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +51 Elo | LAD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 11–3130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.