Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Monasterio doubled to left, Wiemer scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Palacios doubled to center, Santana scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Perkins scored, Anderson scored, Turang safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Borucki, Turang thrown out at second.5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Contreras homered to left center (435 feet), Tapia scored and Monasterio scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Gonzales homered to center (414 feet), Palacios scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -105
- MIL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 22–2016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 4–1 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.