Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting2-4
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hedges hit sacrifice fly to center, Davis scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Smith scored on error, Heyward safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Santana, Peralta safe at third on error.1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Peralta singled to left, Freeman scored, Peralta to second, Smith to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Rojas doubled to center, Vargas scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Heyward doubled to first, Peralta scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Muncy homered to center (404 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Triolo singled to right, Gonzales scored, Castro to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.1 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −5 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +40 Elo | LAD 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 24–154th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.