Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Palacios doubled to left, Gonzales scored and Triolo scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 9Triolo singled to center, Suwinski scored, Triolo to second, Gonzales to third.7–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 8Deluca homered to left (390 feet).6–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 6Davis singled to left, Hedges scored on error, Davis safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Peralta, Reynolds safe at third on error.6–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 4Outman homered to right (407 feet), Heyward scored.5–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 4Reynolds singled to left, Triolo scored, Castro to second.5–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Hedges hit sacrifice fly to left, Gonzales scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Suwinski homered to right center (442 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Betts homered to left (415 feet).2–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Fair odds
- LAD -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.9 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +66 Elo | LAD 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 25–154th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.