Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GilbertPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Carroll singled to right, McCarthy scored, Marte to second, Thomas to third.2–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 10Thomas reached on infield single to first, Canzone scored, McCarthy to second.2–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 10Triolo singled to right, Santana scored, Castro to second.2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Thomas homered to right (377 feet).1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6Suwinski hit a ground rule double, Delay scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Fair odds
- ARI -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.6 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −3 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Kyle Nelson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +46 Elo | ARI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–27 | Road vs home | 25–2319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–3 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.