Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santana singled to center, Davis scored and Reynolds scored, Suwinski to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 6Walker doubled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 6Carroll scored on throwing error by catcher Hedges, Gurriel Jr. stole second.1–6
- 6Carroll scored on throwing error by catcher Hedges, Gurriel Jr. stole second.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Marcano singled to center, Triolo scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 30–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, McCarthy scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Gurriel Jr. homered to left (414 feet), Marte scored and Carroll scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 10–1
- 3Carroll reached on bunt single to first, McCarthy scored, Marte to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +69 Elo | ARI 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–26 | Road vs home | 24–2321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.