Arizona Diamondbacks at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte doubled to right, Carroll scored, McCarthy scored and Perdomo scored.5–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 8Varsho reached on infield single to shortstop, Jansen scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Jansen doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Merrifield scored and Chapman scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiermaier scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Kiermaier singled to center, Espinal scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Espinal doubled to center, Merrifield scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Ahmed scored on Kikuchi wild pitch, McCarthy to second on wild pitch by Kikuchi.2–0
- 2Ahmed scored on Kikuchi wild pitch, McCarthy to second on wild pitch by Kikuchi.2–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. to home on throwing error by pitcher Kikuchi, Walker to second on error.1–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. scored on fielding error by center fielder Kiermaier, Walker safe at second on error, Gurriel Jr. to third on pickoff error by pitcher Kikuchi.1–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. scored on fielding error by center fielder Kiermaier, Walker safe at second on error, Gurriel Jr. to third on pickoff error by pitcher Kikuchi.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -112
- ARI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +23 Elo | TOR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–17 | Road vs home | 25–188th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.