Arizona Diamondbacks at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrifield hit sacrifice fly to right, Belt scored, Chapman to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Bichette homered to left center (383 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Merrifield homered to left center (372 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4McCarthy reached on infield single to second, Gurriel Jr. scored and Rivera scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Springer singled to left, Kirk scored and Merrifield scored, Biggio to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Fair odds
- TOR -110
- ARI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −3 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–16 | Road vs home | 24–188th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.