Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Correa homered to left (397 feet).10–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Farmer homered to left center (410 feet).9–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 6Castro singled to left, Julien scored, Castro to second, Kepler to third.8–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 4Kepler doubled to right, Kirilloff scored.7–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 4Julien homered to right (348 feet).6–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 3Kepler scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh, Castro stole second.5–3
- 3Kepler scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh, Castro stole second.5–3
- 3Kirilloff homered to left (365 feet), Julien scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 1France doubled to left, Kelenic scored, Hernández thrown out at home.2–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1Suárez homered to center (403 feet), Crawford scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- MIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −12 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 26–2211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.