Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Martin MaldonadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Maldonado homered to right center (363 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Kelenic doubled to center, France scored and Hernández scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Hernández doubled to center, Rodríguez scored, France to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +10 Elo | HOU 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 25–2112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 4–2 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.