Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Grae KessingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bryant homered to left (394 feet).1–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 7McCormick singled to left, Bregman scored, J. Abreu to second.0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Julks singled to center, Dubón scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Dubón tripled to right, Meyers scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Kessinger homered to left center (397 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Fair odds
- HOU -128
- COL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.8 – 5.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +75 Elo | HOU 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–29 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.