Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Travis JankowskiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Glenn OttoPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCormick doubled to left, J. Abreu scored.12–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–11
- 9J. Abreu doubled to center, Tucker scored.11–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–11
- 8Seager hit sacrifice fly to left, Taveras scored.10–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–10
- 7García homered to left center (412 feet).10–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–9
- 5Taveras grounded out to shortstop, Heim scored, Jankowski to second.10–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–8
- 5Jankowski singled to left, García scored and Jung scored, Heim to second, Heim safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Julks.10–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 110–6
- 5García singled to center, Seager scored.10–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 210–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 110–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–5
- 4Jankowski homered to right (378 feet), Jung scored and Heim scored.10–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 210–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 4J. Abreu homered to left center (452 feet), Tucker scored and Bregman scored.10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Bregman singled to right, Altuve scored, Bregman to second, Tucker to third.7–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 3Taveras homered to right center (402 feet), Jankowski scored.6–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -117
- HOU +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.9 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +51 Elo | TEX 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–19 | Road vs home | 27–174th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.