Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Meyers hit sacrifice fly to right, Dubón scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Dubón doubled to left, Diaz scored and J. Abreu scored, Dubón to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Altuve grounded out to shortstop, McCormick scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Heim homered to center (415 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 11–2
- 4Jung homered to right center (392 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Lowe grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Semien scored, Seager out at second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Altuve homered to center (421 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 61%
- Fair odds
- TEX -121
- HOU +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.9 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +17 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +81 Elo | TEX 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.