Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker homered to right (400 feet), Bregman scored.2–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8Lowe flied out to center, Taveras scored on throwing error by center fielder Meyers, Semien safe at third on error.0–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 7Jung doubled to center, García scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Semien singled to left, Jankowski scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Jankowski singled to left, Heim scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Seager reached on infield single to second, Taveras scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -117
- HOU +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +50 Elo | TEX 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 26–163rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.