Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Astros- Corey JulksBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez homered to center (420 feet).5–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Julks doubled to left, Diaz scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Raleigh singled to right, Suárez scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Crawford homered to right center (371 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Suárez homered to left (365 feet), Kelenic scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −11 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 24–1911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.