Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mike FordBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting2-4
- Keaton WinnPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pollock homered to left center (404 feet), Wong scored.6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 6Rodríguez singled to right, Pollock scored, Crawford to second.4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Ford homered to right (354 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Ford scored on Winn wild pitch, Murphy to second, Suárez to third.2–0
- 2Ford scored on Winn wild pitch, Murphy to second on wild pitch by Winn, Suárez to third on wild pitch by Winn.2–0
- 1Kelenic grounded into fielder's choice to second, Crawford scored, Rodríguez out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 5.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −1 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +15 Elo | SF 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 23–2014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.