Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Giants- Blake SabolBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sabol homered to center (420 feet), Davis scored and Yastrzemski scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 9Hernández singled to right, Rodríguez scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9Rodríguez doubled to left, France scored and Wong scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Crawford hit sacrifice fly to right, Caballero scored, France to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wong scored, Crawford out at second.2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Sabol homered to center (407 feet), Conforto scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Hernández scored on Webb wild pitch, Ford to second on wild pitch by Webb, Suárez to third on wild pitch by Webb.1–0
- 4Hernández scored on Webb wild pitch, Ford to second on wild pitch by Webb, Suárez to third on wild pitch by Webb.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Fair odds
- SF -118
- SEA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 5.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +5 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +48 Elo | SF 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 23–1912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.