Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- C.J. CronBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Dubón singled to center, Julks scored, Dubón to second, Peña to third.4–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 7Grichuk homered to left center (365 feet).4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Cron homered to left (381 feet).3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Profar reached on infield single to shortstop, Tovar scored, Castro to third.2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Castro singled to left, Jones scored, Tovar to second.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 4Peña homered to right (367 feet), Julks scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Diaz homered to left center (380 feet), J. Abreu scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Diaz homered to left (414 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 69%
- Fair odds
- HOU -137
- COL +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.6 – 5.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −49 | +7 | COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 2.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +143 Elo | HOU 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–30 | Road vs home | 23–1911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.