Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mike FordBatting3-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ford homered to right (408 feet).10–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 4Wong doubled to first, Ford scored, Wong out stretching at third.9–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 4Ford doubled to right, Kelenic scored, Raleigh scored and Suárez scored.8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Kelenic walked, Rodríguez scored, Suárez to second, Raleigh to third.5–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 45–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Raleigh grounded into fielder's choice to second, Crawford scored, Hernández out at second, Rodríguez to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Rodríguez singled to right, Ford scored and Wong scored, Crawford to second.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Wong singled to left, Kelenic scored, Ford to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Bregman reached on infield single to third, McCormick scored, Dubón to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +21 Elo | HOU 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 24–2011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 3–1 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.