Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Mike FordBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ford homered to right (363 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Kelenic doubled to center, Rodríguez scored, Kelenic to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 7Maton homered to center (396 feet), Báez scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Moore doubled to center, Suárez scored and Murphy scored, Pollock to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Baddoo homered to right center (402 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Carpenter homered to right center (406 feet), Torkelson scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Fair odds
- SEA -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +8 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +65 Elo | SEA 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 24–2011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–2 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.