Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Joey GalloBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bleday singled to center, Kemp scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 9Gallo homered to right (390 feet), Solano scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Julien doubled to left, Farmer scored, Vázquez to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Peterson hit sacrifice fly to left, Brown scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Gelof doubled to right, Rooker scored, Brown to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Allen singled to right, Langeliers scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Farmer tripled to left, Solano scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Buxton hit sacrifice fly to center, Correa scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +57 Elo | MIN 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 3019–24 | Road vs home | 12–3230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.