Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Verdugo singled to left, Devers scored, Duvall to second.3–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Duvall reached on infield single to shortstop, Duran scored, Devers to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Brown homered to right center (387 feet), Langeliers scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Kemp reached on infield single to third, Brown scored on throwing error by third baseman Devers, Kemp to second, Wade to third.1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Devers grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Duran scored, Turner out at second.0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Turner singled to right, Chang scored, Duran to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Duran reached on infield single to second, Casas scored, Chang to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Chang singled to center, Hernández scored and Verdugo scored, Casas to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -134
- OAK +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.9 – 5.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −9 | OAK: Sam Long (no track record yet) · BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +81 Elo | BOS 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–32 | Road vs home | 23–2220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.