Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Seager homered to left (379 feet).6–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–10
- 7Yoshida reached on infield single to second, Verdugo scored, Turner to second.5–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Turner singled to right, Arroyo scored, Verdugo to third.5–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 35–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 7Wong singled to center, Hernández scored, Arroyo to second.5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul5–7
- 7Arroyo singled to right, Casas scored, Hernández to third.5–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 7Hernández singled to left, Devers scored and Duvall scored, Casas to second, Hernández to second, Casas safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Grossman.5–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 6Refsnyder singled to center, Hernández scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Heim doubled to center, Jung scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Jung doubled to left, García scored on throwing error by left fielder Yoshida.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Fair odds
- BOS -102
- TEX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.1 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–18 | Road vs home | 22–2220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.