Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6D. Hamilton doubled to right, Arroyo scored on fielding error by right fielder García, D. Hamilton to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6García homered to right center (383 feet), Seager scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Turner singled to left, Yoshida scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Duvall singled to center, Turner scored, Duvall to second, Verdugo to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Turner singled to center, Duran scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 47%
- Fair odds
- BOS -102
- TEX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.4 – 5.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +11 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +21 Elo | TEX 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 21–2221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.