Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting2-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris MurphyPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner singled to right, Yoshida scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Garver walked, Seager scored, Lowe to second, Jung to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 46–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Jung doubled to center, Semien scored, Seager to third.5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Grossman doubled to center, Garver scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Garver homered to center (408 feet), Lowe scored and Duran scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Verdugo grounded out to shortstop, Duran scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 47%
- Fair odds
- BOS -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.4 – 5.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −5 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Brennan Bernardino (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +21 Elo | TEX 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 21–2120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.