Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Twins- Max KeplerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pratto hit sacrifice fly to right, Garcia scored.3–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 7Castro walked, Kirilloff scored, Farmer to second, Kepler to third.2–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 42–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 7Kirilloff singled to center, Solano scored and Buxton scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Buxton homered to left (373 feet).2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Solano homered to right (365 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Witt Jr. homered to left center (432 feet), Garcia scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Kepler homered to center (417 feet), Correa scored and Solano scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Kepler singled to left, Buxton scored, Kirilloff to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -131
- KC +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −10 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +73 Elo | MIN 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 29th of 3012–29 | Road vs home | 24–1911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–7 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.