Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Aaron HicksBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Westburg hit by pitch, Santander scored, O'Hearn to second, Hicks to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Hicks singled to center, Rutschman scored, Santander to second.1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Castro doubled to center, Buxton scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Fair odds
- BAL -116
- MIN +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −12 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +17 Elo | BAL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 19th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 25–187th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.