Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rutschman homered to right center (360 feet).8–1
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 28–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 4Buxton homered to left (397 feet), Gallo scored and Correa scored.8–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Kepler homered to right center (427 feet), Kirilloff scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Kirilloff singled to right, Buxton scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Gallo homered to right (395 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Lewis singled to center, Correa scored, Lewis to second, Kirilloff to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Fair odds
- BAL -121
- MIN +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −6 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +42 Elo | BAL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 25–165th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.