Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nick PrattoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin CoxPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. doubled to center, Lopez scored, Garcia to third.4–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 13–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 8Kirilloff singled to right, Kepler scored, Correa to second.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8Correa singled to left, Taylor scored, Kepler to second.3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Kepler singled to right, Vázquez scored, Taylor to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Taylor reached on bunt single to pitcher, Gallo scored, Vázquez to second.3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Julien homered to right center (413 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pratto homered to right (362 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Buxton hit sacrifice fly to center, Kepler scored, Correa to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pratto singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Taylor singled to right, Castro scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Fair odds
- MIN -134
- KC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | +7 | KC: Austin Cox: team allows 1.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +113 Elo | MIN 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 29th of 3012–28 | Road vs home | 23–1911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–6 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.