Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hicks hit sacrifice fly to center, Urías scored.3–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 10Urías doubled to center, Cowser scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Castro singled to right, Farmer scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6Mullins hit sacrifice fly to right, Santander scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +13 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–17 | Road vs home | 26–198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.