Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bader homered to left (415 feet), Cabrera scored and Rizzo scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Volpe scored on Cano wild pitch, LeMahieu to second on wild pitch by Cano.3–3
- 7Volpe scored on Cano wild pitch, LeMahieu to second on wild pitch by Cano.3–3
- 5Higashioka homered to left (390 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Volpe homered to left center (392 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3O'Hearn singled to right, Rutschman scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Rutschman doubled to left, Henderson scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Mullins singled to right, O'Hearn scored, Urías to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Fair odds
- NYY -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +4 Elo | NYY 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 25–198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–3 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.